Critical decisions–four-quadrant scenario analysis

December 4, 2009

The widely-used four-quadrant scenario method is usually based on weighing the potential outcomes of a pair of uncertainties. Using a four-quadrant diagram with the two uncertainty dimensions gives us four distinct "what if" scenarios. It’s a great tool for analyzing possibilities, and also sometimes for presenting a range of potential scenarios in a logical, clear [...]

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Make better decisions now with better foresight

November 24, 2009

Let’s presume you have this goal: Make better decisions now as you build strategies for the next 3 to 20 years.
To do that, you need to understand your operating environment. You need to know what is likely, and what is uncertain, and find strategies that are robust for a range of potential futures.
 
Most people have [...]

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It’s ok to have more than one innovation at a time

November 19, 2009

Organizations seem so often to have trouble innovating at all, and if they do change, they often just make one change at a time. More rare is a comprehensive rethinking of a product, or system, or business model. But there may be great opportunities for those who can take on a whole system, rethink it, [...]

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Top 10 ways to “futureproof” your packaging

November 13, 2009

Here's a special feature we've also published on Leading Futurists LLC's website under our Future of Packaging resources. The advice could easily be interpreted for other products and services that need "futureproofing":

To "future proof" your packaging, i.e. to make sure it's right for the immediate and longer-term future, now to 5 or 10 years from [...]

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So you want to be a futurist

November 10, 2009

Now and then I hear from people who want to be futurists. They get what I see as "the call" and there's no dissuading most of them who have discovered the field and what (they assume) it has to offer. It's not an easy profession to enter, but there are some ways to find out more, [...]

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Use foresight to avoid losing your way

October 9, 2009

 
It’s too easy to swap your organization’s true mission for single-mindedness about preserving and defending the institution as an institution. The clear and broad view you get with foresight can help you avoid that.
 
Kevin Carey, policy director of Education Sector, an independent think tank in Washington, published an essay, “The ‘Veritas’ About Harvard” in the [...]

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Take a walk in their shoes

September 25, 2009

A key to success in communicating about change is to know as much as you can about what others are feeling and thinking. So take a walk in their shoes.
 
There’s probably a gap between your views and what’s on the minds of the people you are trying to reach. What matters to you may not [...]

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Twitter, and environmental scanning

September 18, 2009

Twitter (www.twitter.com) is not for everyone. It involves your time and attention, regularly, though in very small portions. Your impression of Twitter may be that it’s a place where someone you care only a little about, or not at all, will update you on the fascinating minutia of his/her daily life: "Eating a bagel at [...]

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Turn it upside down and see what you see

August 26, 2009

“Sheriff without a gun” (Andy Taylor, Mayberry)
“What if restaurants didn’t cook and serve you food?”
 
Merce Cunningham: the dance and the music don’t have to match up
 
What if cars didn’t need drivers?
 
These are ideas about a radical change in something familiar. We can use thinking like this to try out new ideas without being hindered by [...]

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Darwinian Futures? — Why we should leave emotions in when exploring the future

July 28, 2009

“Why should a corporation have to survive?”
“Why not let it fail? Creative destruction is good.”
These are statements that it is easy to make intellectually, but hard to take personally, if you are involved with a company as an employee or shareholder, or just as a concerned member of the community.
 
The world and human society in [...]

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